AFC Championship Preview: Chiefs vs. Bills
- Lewis Green
- Jan 25
- 8 min read
Another chapter in one of the NFL's most thrilling rivalries is set to unfold this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, as the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. For the fourth time in five years, the Chiefs and Bills will meet in the postseason with everything on the line, and with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen leading the charge, it promises to be another instant classic.
The Chiefs and Bills have become two of the NFL's most dominant forces in recent years, with each team boasting a dynamic, top-tier quarterback in Mahomes and Allen. The two have faced off multiple times in the playoffs, with Kansas City holding a perfect 3-0 record against Buffalo in the postseason—something the Bills are eager to change. In their last encounter, the Chiefs defeated the Bills 27-24 in a dramatic road win during the 2023 Divisional Round. But this time, the stage is set for the AFC crown, and both teams are even more loaded than they were earlier in the season.
The winner of this game will not only earn a trip to the Super Bowl but also cement their quarterback’s legacy—Mahomes continuing his pursuit of a historic three-peat, and Allen attempting to prove that he can step out of the shadow of the Chiefs' quarterback and finally secure a title of his own. So, what can we expect from this showdown? Let’s dive into three key matchups, two X-factors, and some final thoughts as we preview what is sure to be another epic clash.
Key Matchup 1: The Turnover Battle – Which Quarterback Protects the Football?
Saying that NFL games often come down to the turnover battle is hardly a groundbreaking statement, but when it comes to the playoffs, it holds even more weight. In the case of the Chiefs and Bills, the turnover battle could very well determine who advances to the Super Bowl. Kansas City and Buffalo have each been elite at taking care of the football in recent weeks, but the turnovers from both quarterbacks in their regular season matchup will be fresh in both teams' minds.
The Chiefs have been nearly flawless in their protection of the ball, setting a new NFL record for consecutive games without an offensive turnover—now at a staggering eight games. Patrick Mahomes has been a big reason for that, playing a more controlled, quick-release style of football since the Chiefs’ lone turnover-heavy game against the Bills in Week 11. Mahomes will need to keep his play as clean as he has been over the second half of the season to keep Buffalo's defense at bay.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills have turned the ball over significantly less this season, a massive improvement for a quarterback who had often struggled with turnovers in years past. In fact, Allen’s decision-making has been more disciplined than ever, leading to his career-low in interceptions (just six this season). His ability to avoid mistakes will be tested by the Chiefs’ defense, especially with the likes of Chris Jones and rookie George Karlaftis creating pressure up front. The Bills’ turnover-free performance against Baltimore in the Divisional Round further demonstrates how dangerous they can be when they protect the football.
Key Matchup 2: Matt Milano vs. Travis Kelce – Who Controls the Middle of the Field?
While the turnover battle is critical, there's another matchup that could shift the balance of this game: Matt Milano versus Travis Kelce. Milano, one of the NFL’s best linebackers, has long been a key piece of the Bills’ defense, but he missed the teams' Week 11 matchup due to injury. His return is huge for Buffalo as they try to limit the impact of Kelce, who has dominated opposing defenses for years now.
In their previous encounter, the Chiefs racked up a 52.1% success rate on the ground, thanks to some strong offensive line play and Kelce’s ability to create mismatches in the middle of the field. Milano, however, is a different kind of problem for a player like Kelce. As a versatile linebacker, Milano can cover ground quickly, dropping into coverage when needed while also providing excellent support against the run. The Chiefs will look to get Kelce involved early and often, but Milano’s ability to match up with the future Hall of Famer could be a game-changer for the Bills' defense.
Buffalo's defense took a noticeable step back in the latter half of the season, in part due to injuries in their secondary and the absence of Milano. But with Milano back, the Bills have their most important linebacker, one capable of limiting Kelce’s dominance and preventing him from getting loose for big plays. If Milano can neutralize Kelce or at least slow him down, it would go a long way in giving the Bills a fighting chance in the trenches.
Key Matchup 3: Joe Thuney vs. Bills Pass Rush – Chiefs Left Tackle Play
The Chiefs’ offensive line has had its fair share of struggles this season, but heading into this game, much of the focus will be on the play of their left tackle, a position that has been in flux throughout the season. Since the Chiefs’ Week 11 game against the Bills, there have been two significant changes at left tackle. Initially, Wanya Morris was called upon to protect Mahomes' blindside, but after a few struggles, he was replaced by D.J. Humphries. Following an injury to Humphries, Joe Thuney—originally a guard—has stepped in to protect Mahomes’ left side.
The Bills' pass rush has been one of their stronger points all season, and they’ll look to exploit the Chiefs' unsettled left tackle position. In Week 11, Mahomes was pressured 13 times, and the Bills’ defense was able to take advantage of that pressure to force the Chiefs into difficult situations. Now, with Thuney in at left tackle, the Chiefs hope to stabilize that side of the offensive line.
Thuney’s experience and proven track record in big games could be the difference-maker for Kansas City. If he can keep the Bills’ dynamic pass-rushers at bay, particularly edge rushers like Von Miller (if he plays), Buffalo's defense will have a much harder time affecting Mahomes' rhythm. Protecting Mahomes and giving him time in the pocket will be critical for the Chiefs to execute their high-powered offense.
X-Factor 1: Xavier Worthy – A Rookie Ready for Redemption
Xavier Worthy’s growth over the course of this season has been a key factor for the Kansas City Chiefs, and his emergence as a more well-rounded player could make him a real problem for the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. But beyond just his development as a player, this game carries some extra weight for Worthy—it's a revenge game of sorts.
Back in April, the Bills had the No. 28 overall pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and opted to trade it to the Chiefs. Kansas City, in turn, selected Worthy, the speedy receiver from Texas, with that very pick. Buffalo, a team looking to add more pieces around Josh Allen, passed on Worthy, even though they could have kept the pick and added the dynamic playmaker to their roster. Instead, they gave him to the Chiefs, and Worthy has since gone on to prove that he was exactly the kind of weapon Kansas City needed.
After a bit of a rocky start to his rookie season, Worthy has grown into a more complete receiver as the year has gone on. He’s become a sharper route runner, with cleaner, more precise breaks and a growing chemistry with Patrick Mahomes. No longer just a gadget player, Worthy is now a diverse pass-catcher capable of stretching the field, making tough catches in tight windows, and turning short passes into big gains. He’s playing with a level of confidence that makes him one of the Chiefs’ most dangerous weapons heading into this high-stakes matchup.
That’s where the “revenge” angle comes in. The Bills’ decision to pass on Worthy, only to see him blossom in Kansas City, will certainly be on his mind. In the earlier meeting between these two teams in Week 11, Worthy was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs, finishing with four receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown. But now, with his game more polished and his confidence growing, he’s poised to make an even bigger impact. Worthy’s blazing speed and improved route-running ability make him a matchup nightmare, and he’ll be out to prove to Buffalo that they made a mistake in letting him slip away.
Worthy has become a big-play threat for the Chiefs, and with the Bills’ defense ranking 28th in third-down conversion percentage this season, he could be the key to keeping drives alive and creating explosive opportunities. If the Chiefs can get him involved early, he has the ability to stretch the field and make big plays. That would open up opportunities for the rest of the offense to attack, and Worthy’s presence on the field could force Buffalo’s defense to adjust—perhaps even regretting their decision to let him go in the first place.
As the Chiefs and Bills face off in the AFC Championship, Xavier Worthy enters the game with something to prove: that the Bills made a mistake in letting him slip into Kansas City’s hands. If he continues his impressive development, he could not only be the X-factor for the Chiefs but also add a little extra fuel to an already fiery rivalry between these two teams.
X-Factor 2: Head referee, Clete Blakeman – The man tasked with getting Taylor Swift to the superbowl.
As everyone knows, the Kansas City Chiefs are a dynasty—thanks to their secret weapon: NFL referees. In Sunday’s AFC Championship, the Chiefs will rely on their key man, head referee Clete Blakeman, who’s probably considering a membership at Mar-a-Lago or boarding a private jet to the Swiss Alps, courtesy of Clark Hunt. Obviously, not really, but Blakeman will play a big role in this game—not because he’s on the Chiefs’ payroll, but because of the media circus surrounding them this week. The Chiefs have been the target of a sustained smear campaign on social media, and the griping from their detractors is reaching a fever pitch.
To hear some fans tell it, the Chiefs are constant beneficiaries of perceived favoritism among the NFL's referees, who always side with the defending Super Bowl champions—especially when it comes to roughing the passer penalties.
On Saturday, NFL insider Adam Schefter added fuel to the conspiratorial fire by posting a tweet that seemed to take a jab at Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Then, on Sunday morning, Schefter doubled down on the baseless narrative, posting a misleading statistic that—on its face—would lend credence to the perceived difference in officiating.
It’s unclear whether Schefter genuinely believes in this bizarre conspiracy or if he's just trying to drive engagement on his social media. Either way, notable members of Chiefs Twitter quickly fired back at Schefter’s bogus narrative.
But here’s the thing: this kind of media circus could end up damaging for KC. It may lead to subconscious over-correction from the officiating crew. Ideally, they’ll stay professional and call the game like any other, letting the players play and be physical. But with all this extra noise, it’s hard to ignore the potential impact. The Chiefs will be fired up, though, and you know they’ll use this as motivation to prove the doubters wrong.
Final Thoughts:
It’s the AFC Championship, so you know the drill—Mahomes vs. Allen, drama, big plays, and, of course, a couple of refereeing conspiracies sprinkled in. The Bills may have the regular-season wins, but when it’s crunch time, the Chiefs know how to flip the script. With players like Xavier Worthy emerging as a serious threat and the refs probably getting a call from Clark Hunt’s “vacation fund,” Sunday’s game will be a mix of high stakes and, well, some inevitable Twitter beefs.
For Buffalo, it’s time to prove they can finally beat the Chiefs when it counts. For KC, they’re looking to remind everyone that the league run's through them. So, buckle up—it’s gonna be a showdown for the ages. And hey, if all else fails, blame Clete Blakeman.
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