Chiefs @ Bills game preview:

If you just woke up from a stress-induced coma—likely triggered somewhere in the final minutes of last Sunday’s fourth quarter date with Denver—you might be stunned to learn that your Kansas City Chiefs are still undefeated at a cool 9-0. That’s right, for only the second time in franchise history, the Chiefs have a perfect record this deep into the season. Sure, it got a little tense at Arrowhead in Week 10, but as we’ve seen, the Chiefs will insist on Chiefing.

Now, onto this weekend. The Chiefs are gearing up to face arguably their toughest challenge yet, taking on the 8-2 Buffalo Bills at Orchard Park. The Bills, Kansas City’s familiar foe led by the powerhouse Josh Allen, will enter the matchup limping a bit, missing several key contributors. But make no mistake—Buffalo is still keeping the heat on KC in the race for the AFC’s golden ticket: the prestigious first-round bye.

Let’s dig into the key matchups in what promises to be a heavyweight showdown!

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Key Matchups to Watch

1. Chiefs left tackle vs. Bill's edge rush.

Wanya Morris is set to start at left tackle, but if he takes a knock, we could see Kingsley Suamataia stepping in again. Either way, whoever’s lined up on Mahomes' blindside will have their hands full against Buffalo's pass rush, and the Chiefs can’t afford any weak links in protection. Keeping Morris steady and supported is going to be critical, especially with Mahomes not quite 100%.

Why? The Bills’ pass rush is no joke. Even with Von Miller in the twilight of his career, he’s still delivering—three sacks in six games tell us he’s far from a passive presence on the edge. And then there’s Greg Rousseau, the Miami product who’s been a standout this season, racking up 5.5 sacks over 10 games. Buffalo’s pass rush is relentless, and they’ll look to exploit any crack in KC’s armor, especially with Mahomes nursing that ankle injury.

For Kansas City, the game plan has to center on keeping Mahomes upright and giving him room to work his magic. That means Morris, or whoever takes the job, will need help on the edge. Whether that’s in the form of chip blocks, double teams, or other creative protection schemes, the Chiefs can’t let their left tackle’s performance cost them in a game this important. If Pat has time in the pocket, the offense can hit its stride—without it, Buffalo could be in line to pull off a big win.

2. Chiefs linebackers vs. Josh Allen.

Josh Allen might be the most dangerous scrambling quarterback in the NFL not named Lamar Jackson. Sure, Jackson’s got that electric quickness, but Allen brings his own flavor: he’s a bruiser in the run game, a wrecking ball who can break a defense’s back when he chooses to rumble. Chiefs fans know this all too well, having watched Allen turn critical downs into clutch first-down runs on them time and again. When coverage players turn their backs, or rush lanes open up, Allen sees it and takes off—and at 6’5”, 240 pounds, he’s tough to bring down. Remember that playoff game when he hurdled L’Jarius Sneed? Allen’s a real threat.

So what’s KC to do? They need a game plan that doesn’t underestimate Allen’s mobility. Setting a spy on him—likely someone like Leo Chenal or Drue Tranquill—would be a smart move. These guys can cover ground and have the tackling power to bring down a quarterback who moves like a linebacker. I’d keep the spy on Allen for most of the game but make it mandatory on high-leverage downs. If the Chiefs can contain Allen’s runs, they’ll force him to attack their secondary without one of his top weapons, Keon Coleman, and with a banged-up Amari Cooper. Limiting Allen’s ground game will be critical in forcing him to rely on his arm, where KC’s defense can better control the outcome.

3. Xavier Worthy vs. Bills secondary.

I’ve been banging the Xavier Worthy drum for a few weeks now—calling him an X factor, hyping him up in the matchup breakdowns—and, alright, maybe he hasn’t exactly rewarded that faith just yet. If I were the superstitious type, I’d probably drop the subject. But I’m not, and this week, I’m betting on Worthy again, especially in what feels like a bit of a “revenge game.”

Remember, the Bills were sitting at pick 28 on draft night, desperate for a wide receiver, yet they traded back with KC and let their bitter rival draft Worthy. While I’m not saying Buffalo directly disrespected Worthy, you know he’s aware of it. What better moment for him to show up in a big way?

We’ve been just a hair off the big play with Worthy. Against both Tampa and Denver, a deep touchdown was left on the table, and Mahomes’ miss last weekend robbed us of what could have been a game-changing moment (and definitely a different conversation around Worthy). This week, though, with D-Hop and Kelce drawing the primary coverage and Buffalo lacking a superstar corner, I think we finally see Worthy break through. If he can get behind the Bills’ secondary for a deep shot, it might open things up for a much more fluid Chiefs offense.

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X-Factors

I’m not going to overanalyze this one. At the end of the day, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are the best two quarterbacks in the game, and they’ll have the lion’s share of influence on the outcome. They’re my X factors, plain and simple.

X-Factor 1: Josh Allen

The second-best quarterback in the league, Josh Allen, is stuck in a tough spot—robbed, like so many great QBs, of building a Hall of Fame resume simply because of number 15 in red. Imagine an alternate reality where Mahomes is the shortstop for the Rangers. In that universe, Allen has likely hoisted two Lombardi trophies and snagged a couple of MVPs.

As a Chiefs fan, I have a ton of respect for Allen. He’s a great player and an even better guy—hard to hate, easy to root for. His game mirrors Mahomes’ in so many ways: he’ll beat you with his legs, his cannon arm, his sharp mind—it doesn’t matter; both are that good. With last year’s Orchard Park playoff loss to KC still fresh, expect Allen to come in highly motivated. This could be Buffalo’s only chance to take down the Chiefs at home this season, and they’ll be looking to keep the pressure on for the top AFC seed. I’m expecting a big game from number 17.

X-Factor 2: Patrick Mahomes

The Grim Reaper, the best to ever do it, synonymous with victory, misplaced in comparison—he’s one of one. We know how this goes. Fifteen’s a stage player, and I don’t mean an actor; he’s a guy who gets better the brighter the lights get. He’s unfazed.

Not in the midst of his best statistical season? Doesn’t matter. I believe in him. The Chiefs won’t lose this one because of him. Mahomes will relish the chance to go on the road and play in front of fans who "really don’t like him." With Kelce, D-Hop, Worthy, and Hunt ready to roll, expect fireworks.

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Prediction

I’ll stand by this rationale until the Chiefs lose—hopefully sometime around the end of time.

New Weekly Prediction Tradition: My rule for picks is simple: I go with what the Chiefs have shown me. Sure, it hasn’t always been pretty, and maybe they haven’t hit their highest gear just yet. But here’s the thing—they’re still undefeated. So, until they give me a reason to doubt, I’m sticking with them to win.

Prediction: Chiefs eke out a close one, improving to 10-0 with a 27-24 victory.