Chiefs Conundrum: Rest Mahomes or Secure the No. 1 Seed?

The Kansas City Chiefs' 2024 season has been a masterclass in juxtaposition—flaunting a dominant 13-1 record and the AFC's top seed, yet often feeling like a team stuck in first gear. However, their Week 15 victory over the Cleveland Browns came with a significant cost—Patrick Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter. While the injury is less severe than initially feared, it leaves Andy Reid and the Chiefs with a crucial decision: rest Mahomes to get him healthy for the playoffs or rush him back to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed and its accompanying bye...

The Mahomes Factor: A High-Risk, High-Reward Dilemma

There’s no overstating Patrick Mahomes’ importance to this team. The reigning Super Bowl MVP has battled ankle injuries before—most notably in Super Bowl 57, where he led the Chiefs to victory against the Eagles on one good leg. However, with this latest injury so close to the postseason, the Chiefs face a dilemma: the final three games aren’t the Super Bowl, so there’s no need to rush Mahomes back, but securing the No. 1 seed could provide a massive advantage... Let's look at the Chiefs options here:

Option 1: Rest Mahomes

This ensures Mahomes is as close to 100% as possible for the playoffs.
The downside? The Chiefs will likely lose their grip on the AFC’s top seed with the Buffalo Bills (11-3) breathing down their necks.
Dropping the No. 1 seed means the Chiefs would lose the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Option 2: Rush Mahomes Back

Playing Mahomes in the final stretch gives Kansas City the best chance to win out and secure the No. 1 seed.
Attain home-field advantage and skip wild card weekend.
However, the risk of aggravating the injury could derail their postseason hopes entirely. An unhealthy Mahomes in January is far more concerning than the Chiefs playing one extra game.

Remaining Schedule: Could Wentz Steady the Ship?

With Mahomes’ status up in the air, backup quarterback Carson Wentz will step in under center if Reid opts to rest his star QB. Wentz, who signed with Kansas City this offseason, is a veteran with starting experience, but could he hold the fort?

Here’s a breakdown of the Chiefs’ remaining games:

Week 16: Houston Texans (9-5)

The Texans have had an inconsistent season, with impressive wins like their victory over the Bills but puzzling losses, such as against the Jets. Despite their ups and downs, they remain a dangerous yet inexperienced team, currently leading the AFC South. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud has taken a slight step back from his stellar rookie campaign, while Houston’s defense has been opportunistic all year. For the Chiefs, a solid defensive performance and mistake-free football from Wentz will be crucial. Without Mahomes, this matchup is winnable, but incredibly far from easy.

Week 17: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)

The Steelers currently lead the AFC North ahead of the Ravens, and this Christmas Day showdown could carry significant playoff implications for both teams. Pittsburgh features one of the NFL’s top defenses, anchored by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. For Carson Wentz, who isn’t known for his mobility, strong protection from the offensive line will be absolutely critical. This is a game where Mahomes’ absence could loom largest, and if Wentz starts, I’d expect the Steelers to come out on top.

Week 18: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have enjoyed a standout season under rookie quarterback Bo Nix and head coach Sean Payton, sitting at 9-5. Divisional matchups are always tough, especially when both teams are playoff-bound. If Kansas City is still in the hunt for the top seed, expect Denver to give the Chiefs their best shot. Wentz will need to manage the game carefully, while the defense must rise to the challenge against Nix.

The Buffalo Factor

The Buffalo Bills loom large in this discussion. Sitting at 11-3 and holding the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, the Bills are just two games behind Kansas City and have a favorable schedule ahead. If the Chiefs stumble without Mahomes, Buffalo would likely seize the No. 1 seed, forcing Kansas City into an extra postseason game and potentially a road trip for the second year in a row.

The Verdict: Health vs. Seeding

The Chiefs are in between a rock and a hard place. Resting Mahomes gives the team the best chance to have their quarterback fully healthy for the postseason, but it might cost them the No. 1 seed and the benefits of home-field advantage. On the other hand, playing Mahomes risks aggravating his injury, which could have devastating consequences for their Super Bowl aspirations.

If Reid and the Chiefs trust Wentz to keep them afloat down the stretch, resting Mahomes might be the wisest move. After all, the Chiefs have proven time and again that they can win tough playoff games on the road when Mahomes is at his best.

However, if they feel securing the top seed is paramount—and Mahomes can play without risking further injury—then expect him to suit up sooner rather than later.

The Chiefs’ Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance

Assuming the Buffalo Bills win out, the Kansas City Chiefs would need to secure at least two victories from their three remaining games against the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos to clinch the No. 1 seed. With the Bills holding the tiebreaker and a favorable schedule, the Chiefs can’t afford to slip up.

Whether Mahomes sits or plays, the Chiefs' season will ultimately hinge on one question:

Is the risk worth the reward?