Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Divisional Round Preview

After a well-earned bye, the Kansas City Chiefs are back in action, hosting the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. CT. With a 15-2 regular season record, the Chiefs clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed and enter the postseason as heavy favorites. The Texans, however, come off a surprising Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers and are riding a wave of momentum. But as everyone knows, momentum can be a fickle thing, and facing a juggernaut like Kansas City is a whole different beast.

Injury Updates and Impact:

Jaylen Watson Activated:

Good news for the Chiefs’ defense as cornerback Jaylen Watson has been activated from injured reserve. Watson, out since Week 7, adds depth to a secondary that’s found its groove in recent weeks. Houston's sophomore QB C.J. Stroud will face an even tougher defense with Watson back in the fold—he’s exactly the kind of player you want when you're trying to slow down a rookie quarterback in the postseason.

Mecole Hardman Out:

On the offensive side, the Chiefs will be without wide receiver Mecole Hardman, who is out due to a knee injury. Hardman’s absence will hurt, but with the likes of Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Juju Smith-Schuster, Andy Reid’s offense is hardly short of options. Hardman may be fast, but there’s plenty of speed and playmaking ability still at Mahomes’ disposal.

Joe Mixon Questionable for Texans:

Houston will also have some injury concerns of their own. Running back Joe Mixon is officially questionable with an ankle injury. Mixon didn’t practice on Thursday, and while he’ll likely be motivated to play through it, even a limited version of him could spell trouble. Without Mixon, Houston will lean on Dameon Pearce and Dare Ogunbowale—fine backs, but they don’t have the same star power. Mixon’s absence would certainly put more pressure on Stroud to carry the load.

Key Matchup 1: Patrick Mahomes vs. Texans Defense

The Texans’ defense has been solid this year, but slowing down Patrick Mahomes? That’s a whole different ballgame. Mahomes has had a few weeks to rest and recharge, and with the full complement of weapons (minus Hardman), he’s poised to make it rain in the postseason. Houston’s pass rush will need to get creative to have any shot at limiting Mahomes' impact, but even when pressure comes, Mahomes seems to make magic happen. Good luck, Texans.

Key Matchup 2: Kansas City O-Line vs. Texans Pass Rush

A big question heading into this game: how will Kansas City’s offensive line hold up with Joe Thuney moving to left tackle? Thuney will have his hands full with Will Anderson, the Texans' second-year pass-rush dynamo, and veteran Danielle Hunter. If the Texans can disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm, it could spell trouble for the Chiefs’ high-flying offense. But if the Chiefs’ line can hold firm, Mahomes will have all the time he needs to carve up the Texans' defense like a Thanksgiving turkey.

Key Matchup 3: Travis Kelce vs. Texans Secondary

The Chiefs still have the ultimate matchup nightmare: Travis Kelce. The Texans will likely need to double-team him at times, but that only opens up opportunities for other Chiefs playmakers to shine. Kelce is Mahomes’ go-to guy on third downs, in the red zone, and when the game’s on the line. Can Houston contain him? Not likely. I'd expect a big Zeus game.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Texans 17

The Texans have had a solid season and pulled off an impressive Wild Card win, but facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead is a different level of difficulty. With Mahomes back in action, a strengthened defense with Watson, and an offense that still has all the weapons it needs, Kansas City will prove to be too much for Houston to handle. The Texans will keep it close for a while, but once the Chiefs turn it on, it’ll be smooth sailing. Chiefs advance to the AFC Championship.

Chiefs 31, Texans 17—The road to the AFC Championship starts at Arrowhead, and it’s going to be one wild ride.