Ranking Five Potential Matchups the Kansas City Chiefs Could Face on Their Quest for a Three-Peat.
- Lewis Green
- Dec 1, 2024
- 6 min read
Assuming the Kansas City Chiefs lock up the No. 1 seed and get the first-round bye, they’ll be resting and recharging while others battle it out in wild-card weekend. This gives them the luxury of preparing for their Divisional Round opponent, with home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. While the Chiefs have shown they can handle any challenge thrown their way, the path to a three-peat won’t be easy. Let’s take a look at the five potential matchups the Chiefs could face, ranked from most favorable to most challenging, with the assumption that they’ll be playing at home in the second round.
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (Most Favorable)
Likelihood They Meet: 5/10
It says a lot about the quality of AFC playoff-bound teams that I have Pittsburgh ranked as the most favorable matchup here. The Steelers are a great team, much like the Chiefs in many ways. While Kansas City’s defense has had its ups and downs this season, it's still a solid unit—one that Mahomes and the offense have leaned on countless times over the past two years. Pittsburgh boasts a similar defense, led by TJ Watt, capable of suffocating teams, which could be a concern given the Chiefs’ shaky pass protection as of late.
Offensively, the Steelers are led by a rejuvenated Russell Wilson and a league-average group of weapons—similar to Kansas City's offensive setup. You may have noticed a theme here—both teams have a similar vibe. That’s exactly why I have Pittsburgh ranked No. 1 on this list. To put it simply: Kansas City is more talented where it matters (quarterback, mainly), and they've been here too many times. Not to mention, they dominated Pittsburgh the last time these teams met in the postseason.
We’ll see how the matchup goes on Christmas Day, but if these two teams meet in January, I expect the Chiefs to out-talent and out-experience the Steelers.
2.) Los Angeles Chargers
Likelihood They Meet: 3/10
Somewhat strangely, I actually think Pittsburgh is a better team than the Chargers, yet here I am ranking Los Angeles as a scarier matchup for the Chiefs. Why? Two words: Division Rivals.
As I write this, the Chiefs are preparing for a primetime showdown against the Chargers, their second—and potentially final—meeting of the season. Kansas City came out on top in a 17-10 win back in Week 4, but facing a team that knows you inside and out, with a legit franchise QB like Justin Herbert leading the charge in January, is always a concern.
The Chargers have a middle-of-the-pack defense, but that familiarity with Mahomes and company makes them tougher than their ranking suggests. They know how to scheme against him and make life difficult. Offensively, Los Angeles boasts a solid offensive line, anchored by two franchise tackles, and while their receiving corps isn’t exactly a murderer's row, Ladd McConkey has been a standout rookie. But let’s be real—Herbert is a dude. He can make every throw and give the Chiefs fits if things go awry.
That said, I think Arrowhead in January would be a different story. The moment would likely be too big for a young, inexperienced Chargers team that has yet to prove it can deliver in the playoffs. As a result, I’m fairly confident KC would get the job done. Still, the Chargers’ familiarity with the Chiefs and the talent they have at key positions—especially Herbert—make this a matchup that could get scary if things go sideways.
3.) Detroit Lions
Likelihood They Meet: 2/10
Here we are, the first and only projected Super Bowl matchup on this list. The Detroit Lions are undisputedly the NFC's best team—that fact alone doesn’t make them a lock for New Orleans, but their dominance certainly tips the scales in their favor as we look ahead to the Super Bowl. The Lions are an incredibly well-built, well-coached team, perhaps the antithesis of Kansas City in that they rely more on team execution and scheming than on individual talent.
And there’s no comparison that confirms this more than Jared Goff vs Patrick Mahomes. No disrespect to Goff—he’s a fantastic game manager, and arguably one of the best in the league. He thrives in a structured, organized system, making plays within the confines of a well-oiled offense. Meanwhile, Mahomes, for all his brilliance, has had to lean more on his elite improvisational skills and generational talent—from his incredible arm and processing ability to his movement skills—due to circumstances outside of his control, like inconsistent pass protection and a shifting offensive lineup.
The Lions’ focus on structure and organization reminds me of San Francisco’s teams of years past. While Kansas City has faced those kinds of teams before—twice in as big as it gets situations—it’s always been tough sledding against tight, well-coached teams that execute the basics at a high level.
This would be a tough duel for the Chiefs, but not a guaranteed loss. Ultimately, I’d still pick Kansas City because of No. 15. With Mahomes leading the way, the Chiefs can always out-talent opponents when it counts.
4.) Baltimore Ravens
Likelihood They Meet: 8/10
And then there were two—Baltimore, a team the Chiefs have had undeniable success against, especially in recent years. Most notably, last year’s AFC Championship Game, when Kansas City punched their ticket to back-to-back Super Bowls with a gritty 17-10 victory over the Ravens.
Baltimore is a fantastic team, make no mistake about it. They boast a fierce defense and an offense packed with talentthat could certainly present a challenge. Lamar Jackson, as great as he is—a two-time MVP and Hall of Fame-bound talent—still has one glaring issue: his playoff performance, or rather, the lack thereof. While Kansas City did what they had to do to win last year, it could be argued that Jackson more or less threw the game away rather than the Chiefs winning it outright. The Ravens have a lot of talent, but Lamar's inconsistency in high-pressure situations remains a major question mark.
Then there’s the familiarity factor. The Chiefs narrowly beat Baltimore in the season opener this year—by a toenail—and you can bet the Ravens will be motivated by the prospect of revenge if they meet in the postseason. However, it takes more than just motivation to beat Patrick Mahomes. We’ve seen it time and time again: when the game is on the line, Mahomes tends to find a way, even when the odds are stacked against him.
Still, Baltimore is a team that could absolutely give Kansas City trouble, and the Chiefs will need to bring their best. But at the end of the day, it’s hard to bet against Mahomes when the lights are brightest.
5.) Buffalo Bills (Least Favorable)
Likelihood They Meet: 8/10
I’m sure many of you are a bit shocked to see a team that the Chiefs have categorically 'owned' in the postseasonranked as my least favorable matchup here. After all, the Chiefs strolled into Buffalo last year and ended their season in traditional Kansas City fashion. But there’s something different about the Bills this season, and it’s not just the fact they beat KC in the regular season (which, let’s be honest, usually happens, and the end result is always the same in the playoffs).
This year, the Bills feel different—almost like they’re destined for something. Maybe it’s just me, but since the offseason, when Buffalo started cleaning house of expensive, aging vets and getting younger and fresher, I’ve compared them to the 2022 ‘rebuilding year’ Chiefs. There’s something about them this year that feels like they’ve shed the weight of expectations—the pressure of being the "Super Bowl contender"—and it’s freed them up to play loose, hungry football. Add in a generational signal-caller in Josh Allen, and they feel like a team playing with house money, full of youthful energy and confidence.
And let’s face it—mathematically, it’s just hard to believe the Chiefs can keep beating a team as talented as Buffalo five straight times in the postseason. That’s got to be a fluke, right? Wrong. With Mahomes and company, the Chiefs play better the brighter the lights, and they’ve proven time and again that they can deliver when it matters most. But even with Mahomes’ magic, Buffalo is going to be a tough nut to crack.
The probability of these two teams meeting in January is high, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another fireworks showdown between two of the NFL’s most talented offenses. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and no one will be counting the Bills out, especially with the way they’re playing this year. How it turns out? Well, that’s the beauty of the playoffs—you never know. But one thing’s for sure: if they meet again, it’s going to be a wild one.
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